Key Points
The second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest this week, and the first wave of reports will do more than move individual stocks — it will set the tone for a market that has climbed back near record territory even as chip stocks wobble. The backdrop makes this round unusually loaded: stocks are priced for a soft landing and a durable AI boom at the same time, and these reports are the first hard evidence of whether both can hold.
Five stand out over the next two-plus weeks, each answering a question that reaches well beyond its own ticker. Here they are, in the order they arrive.
1. Delta Air Lines (July 10)
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) opens the season before the market opens on July 10.The question it answers: Is the consumer still spending on travel?
Airlines are an early read on discretionary demand, so Delta’s results — and, just as important, its tone on bookings for the rest of the year — will color how investors approach every consumer-facing name that reports after it.
Delta has topped profit forecasts for four quarters running, so the earnings number itself is probably less the story than what management says about summer demand and corporate travel heading into the fall.
2. JPMorgan Chase (July 14)
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), the largest U.S. bank, reports July 14. Its results are a read on credit quality, loan demand, and the financial health of the households and businesses it lends to.
Watch what management says about loan losses and capital markets activity. As the biggest lender in the country, its balance sheet is a cross-section of the whole economy, which is why its report often moves regional banks and insurers that haven’t even reported yet.
3. Netflix (July 16)
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is the first big growth name up, reporting July 16. The streaming service leader has leaned on price increases and a fast-growing advertising business to keep revenue compounding. The question, however, is whether that pricing power and ad ramp are still holding as competition for viewer time intensifies. Its results also tend to sort of set the bar for the rest of the megacap-technology names that report later in the month.
4. Taiwan Semiconductor (July 16)
Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) reports the same day, on July 16, and it may be the most important of the five. It makes the advanced chips at the heart of the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out, so its results and outlook are the most direct read on whether chip demand is still accelerating or finally cooling.
A confident forecast from the chip giant could help calm the chip-stock nerves that have rattled the market for weeks. A cautious one, on the other hand, could confirm them.
5. Tesla (July 22)
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closes the group on July 22.
After the electric-vehicle maker delivered a record 480,126 vehicles last quarter but watched its stock fall on the news, the question is whether demand is holding up into Q3. After all, gas prices surged during some of the second quarter. Was this just a pull-forward in demand? Or is the quarter’s robust year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries the start of a more durable rebound in the company’s automotive business?
What to watch
Ultimately, each report answers a different piece of one question: whether the earnings behind this market justify the prices investors are paying. Consumer demand at Delta, credit and the economy at JPMorgan, growth and advertising at Netflix, AI-chip demand at Taiwan Semiconductor, and demand trends at Tesla.
I’ll be watching the chip report most closely, since that is the question driving the market’s sharpest moves lately. Together, however, these reports offer investors a good look at whether the market’s rise last year and this year has the earnings to back it up.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Daniel Sparks has clients with positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase, Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
