Key Points
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is down about 7% on the year and off more than 15% from its 52-week high, as of this writing. However, things could be looking up after a dose of good news to start the month.
First, the company announced that it had delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter. This was well above the 406,000 deliveries expected by analysts, as compiled by StreetAccounts. That was also much higher than the approximately 384,000 vehicles it delivered in Q2 of last year. The outperformance appears to be largely driven by Europe, with Deutsche Bank forecasting a 40% increase in the region during the quarter. Cox Automotive, meanwhile, estimated that U.S. deliveries dropped 20%.
After the Fourth of July holiday weekend, Tesla announced on social media platform X that its robotaxi services were now available in Miami. According to Electrek, these services are only available in a small zone, with no service in areas like downtown Miami, the airport, and most of Miami-Dade County.
Is the stock a buy?
The improvement in deliveries is good news for Tesla, as its primary electric vehicle business has been struggling. However, it is still facing headwinds in the U.S. (loss of the federal EV tax credit) and in China (fierce competition), and the uptick in Europe could have stemmed largely from higher gas prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Because of this, there is no guarantee that this uptick is sustainable, and it may be more of a one-off pickup in demand.
Meanwhile, much of Tesla’s valuation is still tied to its robotaxi ambitions. While it is encouraging that the company is expanding beyond Austin, the area it is operating in around the Miami area is still very geofenced. At the same time, the company’s operations in Austin remain a work in progress, with Electrek reporting that it only has around 14 unsupervised robotaxis in operation, down from a peak of 25 vehicles.
The reason for the slow expansion appears to be safety concerns. The NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) has reported several crashes, while independent data points to Tesla’s robotaxis having a crash rate almost four times that of human drivers. While Tesla’s camera-only tech is cheaper and would give it a cost advantage, its safety record is worse than the records of competitors, such as Alphabet‘s Waymo, that use lidar.
With the stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings of nearly 200 times and still struggling with its robotaxi ambitions, I’d stay on the sidelines. However, I think a potential acquisition by SpaceX likely limits some of the downside in the stock.
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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
