NuScale Power SMR has fallen sharply out of favor with investors. On July 8, the stock touched a fresh 52-week low of $8.55, capping a sharp 54.2% decline over the past six months. The selloff has been striking even in a volatile advanced nuclear sector, where OKLO Inc. OKLO has also fallen around 52% during the same period, while BWX Technologies BWXT has proved far more resilient with only a modest decline. The sharp correction naturally raises an important question: has the weakness created a buying opportunity, or does it reflect fundamental concerns that investors should not ignore?
Six-Month Price Performance Comparison
NuScale Yet to See Commercial Success
NuScale continues to possess several strengths that keep it relevant in the growing advanced nuclear market. It remains the first and only company with a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission-approved small modular reactor design, giving it a regulatory advantage over many emerging competitors. The company has also strengthened its commercialization strategy by naming ENTRA1 Energy as its exclusive global commercialization partner, with ENTRA1 responsible for developing, financing, owning and operating projects using NuScale’s technology. The partnership’s work with the Tennessee Valley Authority on a proposal for up to 6 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity highlights the scale of the long-term opportunity.
NuScale is also expanding its fuel supply chain through Framatome, progressing with Romania’s RoPower project and promoting behind-the-meter nuclear solutions for data centers and industrial customers. These initiatives suggest that commercialization efforts continue to move forward. However, unlike OKLO, which is steadily advancing licensing milestones across multiple projects, or BWXT, which already generates meaningful revenues from established government and commercial businesses, NuScale remains largely dependent on future project execution rather than existing operations.
Earnings Visibility Remains Uncertain
The recent pullback has certainly reduced some of the valuation excess that accompanied last year’s nuclear enthusiasm. Yet a lower share price does not automatically make the stock attractive. Investors continue to grapple with very limited current revenues, significant operating losses and uncertainty around when commercial reactor sales will finally materialize.
NuScale’s earnings outlook also creates uncertainty. Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate points to earnings growth of roughly 79% in 2026, the company is expected to remain in the red, with a projected loss of 46 cents per share. More importantly, estimates call for losses to widen to 84 cents per share in 2027, suggesting that a clear path to profitability remains elusive. This outlook highlights the uncertainty surrounding the pace of commercialization and the company’s ability to translate its technological progress into sustainable financial performance.
By comparison, BWX Technologies offers far greater earnings visibility through its approximately $8.7 billion backlog spanning naval nuclear propulsion, uranium processing and commercial nuclear manufacturing. OKLO continues building an integrated business around advanced reactors, fuel recycling and isotope production while steadily progressing through regulatory milestones. Relative to both BWXT and OKLO, NuScale still carries significantly higher execution risk.
Execution Risks Continue to Dominate SMR’s Investment Story
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing NuScale is that investors are still waiting for proof that its technology can generate sustainable commercial revenues. First-quarter revenues totaled only about $565,000, while the company reported a net loss of approximately $44 million. Although liquidity remains strong at more than $1 billion, continued commercialization delays could eventually require additional capital, increasing dilution risk for shareholders.
The cancellation of the Carbon Free Power Project also continues to cast a shadow over the company’s outlook. It demonstrated that even technologically advanced nuclear projects can struggle with financing, customer commitments and cost inflation. Those concerns have not completely disappeared.
NuScale continues to invest in workforce development through its Energy Exploration Centers while expanding customer outreach for behind-the-meter power applications. However, investors are likely to place greater emphasis on tangible commercial milestones, such as binding reactor orders, project financing and long-term customer agreements.
Meanwhile, competitors continue making progress. OKLO is advancing licensing and fuel-cycle initiatives that could shorten future deployment timelines, while BWX Technologies continues expanding manufacturing capacity and commercial reactor participation from an already profitable base. Against that backdrop, NuScale’s long-term opportunity remains attractive, but the timeline toward meaningful commercialization still appears uncertain.
Conclusion
NuScale remains one of the more advanced names in the small modular reactor industry, supported by regulatory leadership, strategic partnerships and a potentially large long-term addressable market. However, the recent decline to a 52-week low reflects legitimate concerns surrounding commercialization timing, limited revenues and execution risk rather than simply weak market sentiment. While OKLO and BWXT also offer exposure to the nuclear revival, both currently appear to have stronger execution momentum or more established operating foundations. Until NuScale demonstrates meaningful commercial progress and more predictable financial performance, the risk-reward balance remains unfavorable. Accordingly, SMR currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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