Key Points
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Ford’s lucrative F-150 often finds itself at the top of U.S. industry sales.
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The F-Series line has been estimated to drive 90% of Ford’s net profit.
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Due to supplier issues, critical F-150 supplies have dwindled, but Ford is working to recoup lost production through the end of 2026.
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For Detroit automakers such as Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), big trucks mean big business. Ford’s lucrative F-Series truck lineup is estimated to bring in about one-third of the company’s total revenue, and it’s long been estimated by Wall Street firms such as Morgan Stanley that it generates as much as 90% of Ford’s net profit. During the first six months of 2026, Ford’s F-150 now trails a Japanese rival for best-selling vehicle, and that’s a big deal for investors.
Wording is key
Let’s first clear up some confusing wording. Ford’s F-Series has been America’s best-selling vehicle for over four decades, but the sales figure comprises the entire line of not only F-150s but also heavy-duty F-250s and larger trucks. Ford’s F-150 is one component and has individually been the U.S. industry’s top seller for 15 of the past 16 years.
However, thanks to not only one, but two supplier fires dating back to last fall, the aluminum supply and ensuing supply of Ford’s important trucks have dwindled during what is historically a strong selling season. Ford wasn’t the only major automaker hitting speed bumps; Toyota also had issues, opening the door for Honda‘s popular CR-V to overtake the Ford F-150, General Motors‘ Silverado 1500, and Toyota’s RAV4.
Honda’s CR-V turned up the heat to finish the first half of the year with a 19% U.S. sales surge in May, followed by an even more lucrative 30% jump in June, for a total first-half tally of 226,114 units. While numbers are still trickling in, GlobalData estimates Ford’s F-150 has fallen just short of that, with estimates just under 210,000 units, while GM’s Silverado 1500 checked in just under 195,000 units. Toyota’s RAV4 lost more ground, with reported sales checking in at 153,955.
Through Honda’s increased incentives (for now), high lease customer retention rate, and strong demand for hybrids — the hybrid CR-V accounted for 55% of its total sales during the first half of 2026 — the CR-V is thriving and has only about 15 days’ worth of inventory with its CR-V production lines running at full capacity.
Ford can offset some losses
Late last year, the Novelis supplier plant fire, and its delayed restarting of production due to a second fire, forced management to reduce last year’s earnings guidance as it wasn’t able to immediately offset production losses. Initially, Ford said the production hiccup would cost it about $1.5 billion to $2 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), although it is aiming to add additional shifts to offset about $1 billion of that throughout this year.
While Novelis does supply other major automakers such as Toyota and Stellantis, Ford’s impact was more severe due to its F-150 using a primarily aluminum body. Ultimately, Ford’s F-150 is losing a sales race it has rarely lost over the past 15 years, but more importantly for investors is how much production it can recoup during the second half of the year. It’s certainly a major ongoing development to keep track of.
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Daniel Miller has positions in Ford Motor Company and General Motors. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
